How the iPhone Widens the U.S. Trade Deficit with China: The Case of the iPhone X

Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in the production of the iPhone X have moved up along the global value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25.4% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated in Japan, South Korea, and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistical distortion of the China–US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a USD332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of the value added, however the deficit is a mere USD104. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because the foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the CNY would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average, and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the CNY would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive U.S. tariffs by depreciating the CNY is impossible.     

中药方剂浸浴联合外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏治疗寻常性银屑病患者的临床效果

目的探讨中药方剂浸浴联合外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏治疗寻常性银屑病患者的临床效果。方法选取2018年2月至2019年4月于沈阳市第七人民医院就诊的寻常性银屑病患者114例作为研究对象,以随机数字表法将其分为观察组和对照组,每组57例。对照组患者外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏进行治疗,观察组患者通过中药方剂浸浴联合外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏治疗。比较两组患者临床疗效、银屑病面积严重程度指数(PASI)评分以及不良反应发生率。结果观察组患者治疗有效率为82.46%,显著高于对照组的63.16%(P<0.05)。两组患者治疗2周、4周后的PASI评分均显著低于治疗前(P<0.05);观察组患者治疗2周、4周后的PASI评分均显著低于对照组(P<0.05)。观察组患者的不良反应发生率为14.04%,低于对照组的21.05%,但差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论中药方剂浸浴联合外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏治疗寻常性银屑病能有效改善患者的临床症状,效果显著,且不良反应少。     

国有企业高管薪酬管制与委托代理问题

由于国企高管的经营业绩难以被准确度量，加上监督约束机制不健全，高管的超额薪酬成为国企代理问题的一种典型表现，于是政府将高管薪酬管制作为应急措施来降低代理成本，缓解国企代理问题。采用双重差分法对2011—2018年A股上市公司的分析表明：第二次限薪令在有效限制国企高管薪酬水平的同时，没有对高管在职消费产生显著影响，有效降低了国企代理成本；但第二次限薪令也降低了薪酬激励效应，导致国企高管努力程度降低，由此造成的利益损失又成为新的代理成本。国企薪酬制度改革面临激励与管制的两难选择，应在国企分类改革的基础上对不同类型国企的高管采取不同的激励机制：对公益类及特殊行业的国企增强高管政治晋升激励，对竞争行业（营利性）国企则应在推向市场的同时放松薪酬管制，从而有效降低代理成本，解决国企代理问题。     

Could virtual reality effectively market slow travel in a heritage destination?

A recent trend in tourism research involves the application of high technology in marketing practices such as virtual reality (VR), cell phone apps, and new media. Among these, VR is the most novel. In 2016, Discovery Travel created TRVLR, which includes all seven continents. Even earlier, specific tourist destinations were providing VR content about their respective locales. These venues expose potential tourists to tourist locations by immersing them in a visceral, 360-degree storytelling setting. However, while VR has gradually grown in popularity in the tourism industry, the marketing effects have been infrequently studied by academia. This research asked participants to view a VR presentation of a famous 700-year-old Chinese painting, and investigated viewers' nostalgia and ST travel intentions. Information was collected from 308 samples at certain popular tourist destinations around Fuzhou in the Fujian Province of China, and Taipei and Taoyuan in Taiwan. Structural equation modeling was then used to analyze the collected data and test the hypotheses. The findings indicate that VR is a very useful tool for encouraging respondents to travel to Jinan in a slower and more intensely observational manner, significantly arousing their sense of nostalgia and leading to a strong intention to ST to Jinan. This research provides important insights into how this new technology might function as a tool for marketing Jinan, a tier-two but historically important destination in China. The implications of these findings are important to understanding the associations for potential tourists among VR use, destination marketing, and travel intention, particularly when the object city is relatively unknown.     

Performance assessment of ensemble learning systems in financial data classification

Financial data classification plays an important role in investment and banking industry with the purpose to control default risk, improve cash and select the best customers. Ensemble learning and classification systems are becoming gradually more applied to classify financial data where outputs from different classification systems are combined. The objective of this research is to assess the relative performance of existing state‐of‐the‐art ensemble learning and classification systems with applications to corporate bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring. The considered ensemble systems include AdaBoost, LogitBoost, RUSBoost, subspace, and bagging ensemble system. The experimental results from three datasets: one is composed of quantitative attributes, one encompasses qualitative data, and another one combines both quantitative and qualitative attributes. By using ten‐fold cross‐validation method, the experimental results show that AdaBoost is effective in terms of low classification error, limited complexity, and short time processing of the data. In addition, the experimental results show that ensemble classification systems outperform existing models that were recently validated on the same databases. Therefore, ensemble classification system can be employed to increase the reliability and consistency of financial data classification task.     

Do consumers care about CSR in their online reviews? An empirical analysis

This research investigates how consumers assess hotels’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices when writing online reviews. The study explores the CSR discourse in online reviews over a 10-year period, highlighting how CSR’s social and environmental dimensions relate to the main hospitality topics (experience, amenities, location, transactions, value). Based on a longitudinal automated text analysis covering 480,000 reviews across six European cities, the findings reveal that hotel customers have gradually begun paying more attention to CSR factors, particularly to social and environmental ones. However, the aggregate results suggest that the overall CSR consumer discourse is still very limited, although it does have important implications in terms of consumer emotions and hospitality dimensions.     

全球股票市场间风险传染的测度、监管及预警

近年来,伴随金融一体化程度的加深,全球各股票市场间风险传染的动态复杂性加剧,其准确测度、高效监管及实时预警已成为优先事项。本研究选取全球21个代表性股票市场作为分析样本,首先基于广义向量自回归模型的滚动估计准确测度其间风险动态传染的高维网络序列,进一步借由矩阵值因子模型来稳健收缩上述序列,以探究其潜在动态核心结构,从而实现高效监管。最后,通过向量自回归模型的预测功能实现对全球股票市场间风险传染的实时预警。研究表明,全球股票市场间风险传染具有时变性,其监管与预警可通过少数与地理区域高度相关的风险区域间的动态传染关系及内部的市场构成来刻画。与此同时,我们发现中国内地等新兴市场的重要地位逐渐凸显。本文研究结论可为有效防范与化解金融风险提供有益参考。     

从接受美学观点看旅游语篇翻译原则

受到不同文化和语言环境的影响，旅游语篇文本特点也各不相同，要在正确的理论指导下来分析。接受美学理论为翻译研究开拓了新思路，对旅游语篇翻译具有重要的启示意义。以接受美学理论为指导，从译者主体作用、读者中心地位以及跨文化交际目标三个方面探讨旅游语篇的翻译原则。     

网络段子:微传播时代的全民狂欢

藉由"微媒介",网络段子作为新媒体写作家族的成员,因其短小精悍、发表无限制、娱乐性强的特征,契合了当下快节奏的生活,迅速形成全民写作热潮。它直面现实,消解权威,颠覆传统,调侃生活,娱乐大众,成为微传播时代大众精神消费的狂欢。     

Expansion of EU's Free Trade Agreements into Asian Countries and Its Impact on the Chinese Economy

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of EU's free trade agreements with Asian countries and the US on the Chinese economy. In addition we examine the impacts on the Chinese industry output based on the framework of production network and production fragmentation. The expansion of the EU's economic reach toward ASEAN and Japan through free trade agreement will generate a positive macroeconomic effect on negotiation participants while it generates a negative effect on the Chinese economy: Some portions of existing trade and foreign direct investment will be shifted to partner countries from non-partner countries. However, according to a sectorial analysis, EU's free trade agreements with three countries result in a positive impact on China's electronics and machinery industry, because China's industry is linked to the production fragmentation and foreign affiliates play a crucial role.